The following update is from the National Weather Service Guam office, and was issued around 4:30 p.m., Friday, September 6, 2024:
A tropical disturbance near Kosrae in the FSM was formally labeled as Invest 95W overnight by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). It is currently rated as “LOW” for development, meaning that development into a significant tropical cyclone (tropical depression) in unlikely within the next 24 hours. Earlier today, 95W was centered near Kosrae around 7N164E, tracking slowly west-northwestward. From the JTWC: 95W is in a favorable environment for development, with low to moderate wind shear, good poleward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures. Although highly disorganized and with no discernible low-level circulation center (LLCC), global models agree that 95W will continue to track west-northwestward and intensify over the next 48 hours.
There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the potential track and intensification of 95W the next few days. This is due to the amount of time before its eventual passage, and the wider range of forecast scenarios from numerical forecast models. Earlier projections ranged from a weak tropical disturbance or depression passing south of Guam / near Yap, to a stronger tropical cyclone, possibly a typhoon, passing northeast of Saipan and through the far northern Mariana Islands. Recent trends favor a westward track with a weaker system this weekend before gaining latitude by midweek, with a passage closer to the south of Guam to the southern CNMI region.
Folks across the Marianas should keep a close watch on the latest forecasts and information from the National Weather Service on Guam, and from your local Guam and CNMI Homeland Security Offices, through the weekend. It remains a possibility that a tropical cyclone, of some intensity, could push through the Marianas next week.
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