Storm develops, as NWS expected; wide trajectory can send it to “near Yap” to “near Saipan”


The National Weather Service Guam office was right, again. A storm system NWS chief meteorologist Landon Aydlett said he and his team were monitoring has become Invest 95W as of this morning.

This does not mean necessarily that anything more than a tropical disturbance will develop; and if it does develop, it does not mean that the storm will pass over Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan, or the Northern Islands. NWS will be able to provide more detailed information as time goes by and forecast models come to closer agreement. Thus far, their hypothesis about weather “junk” swirling near the Federated States of Micronesia and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (vast expanses of the Micronesian Pacific) becoming an invest area has materialized.

“Currently, all options remain viable,” Mr. Aydlett said of the brewing storm. That means the invest area can dissipate before it becomes a tropical depression, or it could intensify with the right conditions. And as far as where it will travel if it does pick up speed and intensity?

“The models provide quite a spread from near Yap and weaker to near and northeast of Saipan and stronger,” Mr. Aydlett said. That geographic area encompasses the western FSM and all of the main islands of the Marianas.

Invest 95W as of Friday morning opened up as a “small circulation centered near Kosrae,” Mr. Aydlett said. Kosrae, part of the FSM, is located southeast of the Mariana Islands.

Mr. Aydlett emphasizes that it still is very early in the storm’s development and that NWS is monitoring and tracking meteorological data so the agency can sound the alarm bells if and when the public needs to heighten preparedness. As of now, the NWS lead says there is no need to panic or worry beyond usual preparedness. It is important, especially with the quick availability of non-curated weather information on social media, for residents of the Marianas to refrain from sharing information that is not sourced from NWS Guam. Previous storm watches have seen viral information taken from non-NWS sources become harbingers of misinformation and unnecessary panic. In emergency management, such information can lead to deadly outcomes.

Kandit will continue to update its readers and viewers with the latest information from NWS. Another update is expected Friday afternoon after 3 p.m.


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