By Barbara Brown
It isn’t cause for worry at this time, but the National Weather Service is monitoring brewing conditions southeast of the Mariana Islands that may turn into a storm this weekend. If it does turn into a storm, according to NWS chief meteorologist Landon Aydlett, his team will track its path and keep the peoples of Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan, and the Northern Islands apprised of its trajectory and development through the next week.
As of this morning, NWS was tracking forecast models that show the development of a tropical disturbance near or south of Kosrae and Pohnpei later this week. It may develop further “as it makes a pass near or through the region between Yap and the northern Marianas sometime next week,” according to NWS website information.
NWS emphasizes that many scenarios from different sources are circulating on social media about this possible development, but for the public to maintain its trust in NWS for storm and preparedness information.
Here is a full statement from Mr. Aydlett, who will be issuing an update Friday afternoon:
“As of this morning – the overall situation remains unchanged, with the operative word regarding forecast model guidance for next week being ‘possible.’
“Forecast trends favoring tropical development in the region hinge closely on the emergence of a tropical disturbance Friday or Saturday in the vicinity of Kosrae and Pohnpei. At this time we wait and watch trends closely across the [Federated States of Micronesia].
“It’s important to note that when we discuss the possibility of tropical weather in the region – that’s based on some degree of heightened potential in the region, and also the likelihood that many in the community are seeing such trends via publicly available weather apps.
“We like to infuse the public speculation with a degree of reason and discussion of what is seen in the numerical models. While the possibilities are there for something in the region next week – there are no guarantees at this time, and therefore not a time to panic or fear.
“However – if and when we see some observed trends favoring model solutions – then our communications and decision support services to government partners and the public, will dramatically increase.
“As a reminder – it’s key for folks to keep up to date on NWS forecasts and discussions, and to always be prepared. September is National Preparedness month , so visit ready.gov and guam homeland security on the web for detailed preparedness info for your family and work place.”
Pointing to satellite imagery, Mr. Aydlett says he and his team are watching the crowding weather image “crossing over the [Republic of the Marshall Islands] now. Nothing cyclonic in nature, but models pinpoint the emergency of something in the next 24 to 48 hours. We will see.”
