“It’s looking less likely we’ll see tropical storm conditions tomorrow in the Marianas,” National Weather Service meteorologist Brandon Aydlett told Kandit at 4 p.m. Monday regarding Tropical Depression 16W.
“There’s a small chance things could change,” Mr. Aydlett said, explaining that weather experts are starting to shut the proverbial door on any notion 16W could pose a significant threat to the Mariana Islands. The question baffling meteorologists at the major weather agencies, according to Aydlett, is where the center of the storm is developing. Knowing that information will help them to advise the governments of Guam and the CNMI where the heavier winds and rains will land.
“The circulation is poorly developed right now,” he said. “We’re thinking it may be farther north; there’s some disagreement on where the center is. If 16W were to go further north, the stronger winds will be over the CNMI – Rota northward – and weaker winds for Guam. We’re looking at midday (Tuesday) passage CPA, but I would hesitate to say where that passage will be; north of, south of, or over Guam.”
“We’re still looking at potential for wet, rainy, windy weather tomorrow,” he said.
According to the latest public advisory from the National Weather Service, 16W’s maximum sustained winds as of 1 p.m. Monday were at 30 mph, nine miles shy of tropical storm strength. “Tropical Depression 16W was located about 395 miles east of Guam at 100 PM ChST, moving west at 18 mph,” the weather statement states. “The current forecast track has 16W passing Guam around midday Tuesday as a tropical depression, with intensification to tropical storm intensity becoming less likely until after passing Guam.”
“We don’t want to let our guard down,” Mr. Aydlett warns. “This system has had a history of being a tropical storm. Expect uptick of rains and winds probably after midnight.”
You may monitor the National Weather Service Guam Office’s public advisories and weather statements at www.weather.gov/gum, or via their Facebook page at @NWSGuam.