Where are the tourists?

A stroll through Tumon at any time of the day any day of the week may leave you wondering: ‘Where are all the tourists?’

The latest data posted to Guam Visitors Bureau’s website shows an exponential improvement in visitor arrivals from Korea and Japan this year over last, but with only half the tourist numbers that visited in 2019, before the pandemic. The latest GVB data runs through June 2024. It is unclear whether more significant improvements happened in July and August.

Anecdotal evidence may suggest against such an improvement. Foot traffic through the tourist district was sparse in late August. Several Tumon shops have shuttered, while others have contracted business hours. The once-luxury-dominant Tumon Sands Plaza is a shadow of its former magnificence, with typhoon shutters blocking windows and entrances of what was once a flagship Louis Vuitton store, the Givenchy shop that anchored the mall’s northern corner, and even the Tiffany boutique. The rest of its street-facing first floor windows peer into what was the Red Lobster restaurant.

DFS Galleria and JP Superstore, once the shopping icons of a bustling tourism industry, are shadows of a time not long ago, when parking was a problem, buses blocked lanes, and customers far outnumbered employees. Indeed, across the street in shops like Rolex, Michael Kors, and Gucci, workers can be seen biding their time and waiting for customers while cleaning, surfing their phones, or chatting with each other.

These views add to the economic tragedies just a few blocks south along San Vitores Road, where two hotels are decaying in their abandonment, and an unfinished mall reminds residents of a pre-pandemic Guam that was welcoming more tourists than the island had hotel rooms to house.

For the most part, you no longer need a reservation or to wait for a table at a restaurant in Tumon. Bars and clubs – even on weekends – are foreboding of an economy that thus far has survived. But the question is, if Guam can’t attract greater numbers of tourists who will spend money in Tumon and elsewhere in the island, how will businesses mediate cash inflow to an island economy that purchases more than 90 percent of everything we consume from off island sources? How much longer can businesses continue keeping people on payroll and paying them wages that tip them from the temptation of leaving island for greener pastures?

According to GVB preliminary data for June 2024, there has been an overall 30 percent increase in visitors from 2023 to 2024, with 386,397 visiting Guam between January and June this year. Most of them – 205,088 – were from Korea, whose market posted a 13 percent increase over last year. The June 2023 versus June 2024 numbers for Korea show an exponential increase, from fewer than 3,000 Korean tourists in June 2023 to more than 26,000 this past June. That is an increase of more than 800 percent. But the 52,757 total tourists in June isn’t even half of the 123,528 total tourists who came to Guam the same month in 2019.

And Guam isn’t much closer to recovering to pre-pandemic annual arrivals that reached more than 1.6 million visitors.

GVB has been active and strategic about destination enhancement and marketing the island, especially in Japan and Korea. Nevertheless, the agency is in a battle for a dwindling number of Korean and Japanese tourists against other Pacific destinations like Saipan and Hawaii. And both those tourist resorts are struggling just as much, if not worse, than Guam in attracting Asian visitors.

For instance, while Guam posted an increase in Korean arrivals comparing June last year to this past June, the CNMI showed an eight percent decrease for the same market in the same period. And while Guam posted a more than 300 percent increase in Japanese arrivals for that period comparison, Hawaii was only able to attract 30 percent more from that market. In fact, in June this year, Guam attracted 11,245 Japanese visitors while Hawaii brought in 66,557. The eastern Pacific state appears to be struggling behind Guam to reclaim its pre-pandemic market share of Japanese tourists. The Hawaiian visitors report for June does not even mention Korean arrivals.

Why aren’t once-alluring American tourist destinations in the Pacific attracting their once-dominant source markets, Korea and Japan?

For starters, global inflation and more accurately the ability of Japanese and Korean citizens to afford the luxury of travel has diminished hopes of a full rebound, at least for this year. The Chinese economy – burdened by a real estate crisis – has hurt Japan’s economy, with fewer Chinese tourists to Japan being able to spend as much as they used to spend on vacation there prior to the pandemic, according to an article in Nikkei Asia.

And with the strength of the U.S. economy and its Dollar trouncing foreign currencies coupled with high costs in the islands, Guam, Saipan, and Hawaii have become too expensive for many Asian travelers. Instead of vacationing in Pacific paradises in Tumon, Garapan, and Waikiki, Korean and Japanese tourists are spending their money vacationing in southeast Asian resort destinations that offer cheaper and arguably better experiences in virtually the same tropical paradise setting.

Resort destinations like Phuket, Bali, and Nha Trang are not the only places competing for Korean, Japanese, and Chinese tourists. Country policies and incentives have turned the Asian traveler toward domestic tourism. Basically, Guam is competing for Japanese tourists who are being pulled to visit other parts of their own country. Same with Korea and China. And while the American Pacific islands are struggling to rebuild tourism, the Japanese this past summer elevated tourism to their country as the second-largest export, according to Nikkei Asia.

The report shows that in the first half of this year alone, Japan welcomed nearly 18 million tourists, making a complete recovery and beyond compared to their pre-pandemic tourist market economy. A report by the Japan Tourism Agency, according to Nikkei, revealed that more than $13.5 billion flowed into Japan in the period between April and June alone just from tourism.

Leisure travel site Statista says that Guam and the CNMI’s largest source market travelers – Koreans – long for and make it a hobby to travel outside the Korean peninsula. According to 2023 data, however, the top 10 destinations of Korean travelers include eight Asian countries, with neither Guam nor the CNMI making the cut. Interestingly, Guam’s pre-pandemic arrivals from Korea outnumbered 2023 Korean tourism to the bottom half of that top 10: Taiwan, Singapore, Spain, Hong Kong, and Malaysia.

Travel blog Outbox said this about Korean travelers in a February 2023 post: “The three key factors influencing their decision to travel abroad are safety, price, and measures to prevent and control the pandemic. They said they would be willing to pay a lot to get the most complete experience at the property. 39.2% of Korean tourists surveyed preferred the luxury hotel and resort segment.”

There is a ray of hope for Guam and the CNMI’s ability to attract Korean travelers: Korea JoongAng Daily three days ago reported that domestic travel by Koreans is on the decline. The Daily, however, reports that Korean travelers instead are flocking to Japan and Southeast Asian countries because of high food and accommodations costs inside Korea. So, while Korean tourists are more willing to leave the safety of their homeland for a vacation abroad, Guam and the CNMI need to show the contemplating Korean traveler that a vacation in American Pacific paradise will not break the bank.

That might be an easier sell for Saipan with its restaurants, bars, and groceries generally costing much less than their Guamanian counterparts. But the prices of hotel rooms, road transportation, entertainment, and recreation are higher than they’ve ever been in our territories, with some exceptions. And the conditions of several roads, graffiti, litter, derelict and abandoned buildings and cars, and the growing visibility of homeless people and the impoverished conditions in our islands don’t help. Neither does crime, which is a more pronounced issue in Guam than in the CNMI.

How soon will we see the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel? It’s hard to say. In the meantime, if you’re looking for a peaceful uncrowded place to take a long walk and you’re willing to risk being heckled or even becoming a crime victim, Tumon is the place for you. Sadly. And hopefully, temporarily.

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The photos here were taken two Fridays ago.