The political autopsy on the Democratic Party of Guam

Aside from the Presidential straw poll and a few mayoral races, the Democratic Party of Guam blew it in the 2024 election. As rigor mortis sets in on the election results, a line can be drawn connecting Ginger Cruz’s stunning defeat to those of the Lou Leon Guerrero – Joshua Tenorio administration’s three most vocal advocates: Roy Quinata, Dwayne San Nicolas, and Tom Fisher.

The line’s color? A fuchsin stroke drawn by voters who associated Ms. Cruz and the three vanquished senators with Guam’s increasingly unpopular governor and lieutenant governor.

How else can a reasonable political observer explain how Cruz, who arguably wagered one of the best political campaigns in Guam history (she did everything right; everything by the book; everything), lost to Republican incumbent delegate James Moylan? The now-reelected congressman spent far less than she did, ran on a dismal record of losses and embarrassing performances in the House, and even has the allegations of ethical misconduct looming over his office.

Ms. Leon Guerrero and Mr. Tenorio endorsed Ms. Cruz and their supporters came out for Mr. Quinata, Mr. San Nicolas, and Mr. Fisher. The proverbial “kiss of death?”

Meanwhile, the Republican Party of Guam scored big. Come January, and for the first time in nearly two decades, Republicans will be the majority party in the Guam Legislature. They will be in charge of central operations, the officer positions, and the committees from which legislation is scrutinized and cleansed. If they behave the way Democrats did the past 16 years, then Democrats don’t stand a chance in shaping the major policies of this island. As for the Democrat governor and lieutenant governor, this election sealed their positions as lame ducks.

Much of the Republicans’ win should be attributed to the party’s new chairman and (many of) the other officers. Shawn Gumataotao, who led his party despite criticisms from within, also was elected to be a senator in the Thirty Eighth Guam Legislature. Mr. Gumataotao should be applauded.

He led an organization that went into this election with one major shortcoming: the Republican Party of Guam does not have access to the kind of resources the Democrats have as the party in charge of the 13,000-strong executive branch. And it’s not like this administration has been shy about pressuring GovGuam employees to do its political bidding.

This election was the Democrats’ to lose, and boy did the Democratic Party of Guam snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

A Democratic Party of Guam source wrote this to Kandit about Democratic Party of Guam chairman Tony Babauta:

Failed to get a full slate of 15
Failed to get the party organized
Failed to mobilize the vote
Lost the majority
Lost the delegate race.

“He should resign immediately,” the source said.

Mr. Babauta replied:

“While I’m deeply disappointed by the outcome of this election, in which we were unable to maintain the legislative majority or secure the congressional seat, we respect the decisions of our people.

“There were many challenges in this mid term cycle outside of Party organizing that may or may not have dissuaded voters away from our Democratic candidates. Understanding those reasons and being able to successfully respond to it should guide the Party and our candidates preparing for future elections.

“In her concession address, Vice President Harris gave her supporters and the Nation sage advice; “This is not the time to throw up our hands, this is the time to roll up our sleeves”. Such wisdom will inspire me, our Party, and hopefully others who share the belief that Democratic principles are worth the fight; losses won’t distract us, they remind us of the unity needed for future success.”

The 2026 Race for Governor of Guam

Among Mr. Gumataotao’s field marshals was a man whose delivery in the consequential vote-rich city of Dededo now bolsters his image within the party and to an island electorate that still is learning his name. Dededo Republican Party Chairman Charlie Hermosa – one of only two declared candidates for governor (Mr. Tenorio is the other one) – delivered big in a village Ms. Cruz and the Democrats should have won handily.

Then there is the popular election of Senator-elect Tony Ada, and the reelection of Senators Jesse Lujan and Chris Duenas. Mr. Ada and Mr. Duenas both are rumored to have their eyes on the governor’s race, while Mr. Lujan is rumored to be organizing a campaign along with Dr. Michael Cruz, the former lieutenant governor who reportedly wants to run for governor. If Republicans emerge from their caucus to elect Frank Blas, Jr. as the next legislative speaker, then those rumors will be further validated. No one running for governor or lieutenant governor should want to be bogged down by the tedious work of a legislative speaker.

And with year after year of budget surpluses, the most desired leadership role for anyone running for governor or lieutenant governor should be the coveted Ways and Means Committee, whose chairman determines who in the government and the private sector gets what appropriations and tax benefits.

In a sense, the people’s two top choices for the next legislature, Senators Therese Terlaje and Chris Barnett, should feel relief that they will soon belong to the minority party. They can spend the next two years as the loyal opposition to both the Republicans and the unpopular Adelup tenants, and have the excuse of their minority position for non-performance of legislative duties. In short, if those two are running for governor and lieutenant governor (as is rumored), they’ll have the next two years to campaign from their positions unencumbered by tedious legislative duties.

This next legislature has a striking resemblance to the 22nd Guam Legislature, from which emerged the gubernatorial candidacies of then-Senators Carl Gutierrez and Madeleine Bordallo, and then-Senators Tommy Tanaka and Doris Flores Brooks.

If the Democrats want to win in two years, they’re going to have to engage some fancy footwork pivoting from Ms. Leon Guerrero and Mr. Tenorio and rebranding their party.

Is Mr. Babauta up for the job? Can he and will he lead this pivot? Will it even matter now with the momentum the Republicans have thanks to Mr. Gumataotao and his team?

We shall see. And boy will the next two years be interesting.